Survivor: Blood Vs Water Week 7 Predictions

The last time I made predictions (prior to Week 5), I made the assumption that the merge was about to happen. It didn't. The teams got reshuffled. This is what they look like now:

Team Coyopa (Orange - 5 players): Jon/Jaclyn, Baylor/Missy and Keith*.

*has an idol

Team Hunahpu (Blue - 7 players): Josh/Reed, Wes, Alec, Jeremy, Natalie, and Julie.

Survivor Blood Vs Water Week 6 Recap

Unfortunately sometimes real life intrudes and I was not able to make my predictions before this week's episode. Oh well. This week's recap is brought to you by the "sponsor" on the right. And by sponsor, I mean what I drank while watching the episode. So yeah, I am still looking for a sugar daddy. I am not ashamed. It's good business sense.

The week 5 recap can be found here.

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Survivor Blood Vs Water Week 5 Recap

This week's recap is sponsored* by:

*And by "sponsored" I mean it's what I drank while watching the episode. Still no sponsors yet. I am trying the international angle on this one.

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So we barely got to see everyone's reactions to Drew being gone (some were surprised), before Probst dropped the bomb on everyone. Not the merge that I was basing my predictions on, but a rearranging of teams! Instead of a reward challenge, everyone chose a container that had a new buff in it.

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COYOPA

The Coyopa tribe ended up with most of the couples. The members are now:

Kelley/Dale, Jon/Jaclyn, Missy/Baylor and poor old Keith.

You would think Keith had a target on him, but no. Then the argument over the rice started between Missy and Dale. Coyopa was methodical about rationing theirs out, but Missy was all about cooking large portions of it for everybody (and this wasn't even her old tribe!). So instead of blending in it was friction from the start.

You would think the couples would work together against the singles, but right away it was couple against couple with Jon/Jaclyn being a swing vote.

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HUNAHPU

Since Coyopa got most of the couples, that left Hunahpu with most of the singles. There was just one couple, Josh/Reed, with the rest being Wes, Alec, Jeremy, Julie and Julie.

Guess what was an immediate issue? Yep, rice. As in lack of. The ex-Coyopa people were like umm, where's all y'all's food? Then they realized that's why they were probably losing all the challenges to Hunahpu because they were eating twice a day. But now the food is running way low...

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Immunity Challenge

Each team had to dig out a bag with keys in it, then crawl through a mud pit. On the other side they used the keys to unlock gates which led them to a pole with a basket on the top. Shaking the pole would release bean bags. Ten of these bags had to be thrown on a balancing platform to win.

It wasn't even close y'all. Hunahpu was all the way at the end before Coyopa could even find the keys in the sand. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am and it was over. Hunahpu gets immunity. Coyopa goes to tribal.

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Tribal Council

The strife between the couples seemed to make it safe for Keith. The only deciding thing would be which way would Jon/Jaclyn go?

Now tell me if you have heard this before, but Baylor got two votes. Dale also got two votes. And... Kelley gets three votes to be voted off the island.

So that leaves us with:

Team Coyopa (Orange - 6 players): Dale, Jon, Jaclyn, Baylor, Missy and Keith*.

*has an idol

Team Hunahpu (Blue - 7 players): Josh, Reed, Wes, Alec, Jeremy, Julie, and Natalie.

Voted out (in order): Nadiya, Val, Rocker, Drew, Kelley

Survivor: Blood Vs Water Week 5 Predictions

Now I am going off the assumption (from the preview at the end of last week's episode) that the merge is about to occur. This got me thinking about where everyone would rank together, and what partners are still intact.

The strongest tribe is Hunahpu so I will go from how I previously ranked them (minus Drew).

1) Jeremy - Val is gone

2) Jon - Jaclyn

3) Reed - Josh

4) Keith - Wes

5) Julie - Rocker is gone

6) Natalie - Nadiya is gone

7) Missy - Baylor

8) Kelly - Dale

And because Drew is gone, Alec has to be in there somewhere.

If it's couples > singles then my guess is it could go like this:

1) Jon/Jaclyn

2) Reed/Josh

3) Keith/Wes

4) Missy/Baylor

5) Kelly/Dale

6) Jeremy

7) Alec

8) Natalie

9) Julie

Now in this scenario do they go after Julie for being the weakest (and the Rocker connection), or try to blindside someone? I think it all depends on, like Drew, who runs their mouth and makes themselves a target.

Also, if you remember last week's tribal council for Hunahpu was all over the place. Aside from Drew's five votes, Julie got two and Kelley/Keith got one each.

*Predictions

Julie goes home unless the couples team up and try to be strategic. In that case, Jeremy is the blindside candidate.

The singles better start making some alliances ASAP. I can see everybody doing that, except Jeremy. If he goes all alpha dog, he makes himself a target.

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Survivor: Blood vs Water Week 4 Recap

This week's recap is sponsored* by:

*And by "sponsored" I mean it's what I drank while watching the episode. No real sponsors yet. Many spots still available...

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So after last week's tribal council where Coyopa voted out John Rocker, things look real bleak for them. Hunahpu definitely has an advantage now.

Coyopa (Orange)

Back at camp after tribal everybody was feeling more "positive" about things with Rocker gone. Well everybody except Dale. He realized he was completely left out of the strategies leading up to the vote and feels he is in major trouble now. He is.

Hunahpu (Blue)

So guess what they find? An idol? Nope. The flint that they lost in week 2. Drew has the idea of trying to swap it for part of the fishing gear, but no one sides with him. He doesn't shut up about it either. Everyone at camp says Drew is a big talker, but does nothing around camp. Uh huh...

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Reward Challenge

So before they even start, Drew is like "excuse me Jeff". He looks up and notices the flint in Drew's hand. They basically ask what the return policy is and can they get something for it. Jeff toys with them a bit and then basically says umm, nope.

So Jon and Jaclyn square off in the reward challenge. This week is a choice of two things: comfort items as before, or campfire food (sausages, popcorn, smores). They bout lose their mind over the food.

So the challenge is to hook three bags with balls in them and drag them back by a rope. Take the balls out and put them on a mini catapult to jump and shoot them in five different baskets. Jaclyn got off to a good lead, but Jon caught up and sank the last ball before she did.

Jon chose Drew to go into exile with his woman.

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Exile Island

As usual there were two jars to choose from. This time Drew got the clue. Then things got interesting.

They began talking about their respective camps and alliances and stuff. Drew then tells her that he is going to try and throw the Immunity Challenge so he can start weeding out some of the snakes in his camp. I'm not sure Jaclyn believed him.

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Immunity Challenge

Each side had to use six people, and Hunahpu surprisingly left off Jeremy, Jon and Kelley. Either they were thinking about throwing the challenge, or thought they could win with weak people.

The challenge was to swim and climb up on a ramp, then run up the ramp and dive off. Swim to a floating ring, untie it, and return backwards through the obstacles to the beginning. Then two partners would try to throw the rings on some hooks.

Baylor, Jaclyn, Alec and Wes for Coyopa were able to retrieve all four before Missy, Reed, Natalie and Keith were for Hunahpu.

In the ring toss part, Drew takes over an purposely (?) keeps missing. Dale and Josh are able to get all four rings on to win immunity for Coyopa.

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Tribal Council

This is what I have been waiting to see. Now Hunahpu has to show how they really feel about things. And things got crazy y'all.

So earlier, Keith goes out hunting for the idol and can't find it. He assumes that someone else has it already and that it must be Jeremy because he was the only other one to go to Exile Island from Hunahpu. He tells the others what he thinks and Jeremy goes and bout loses his mind. He way overreacts and thinks Keith is conspiring against him now and wants to vote Keith out. The funny thing about all this is after Jeremy's blow up, Keith goes looking again and actually finds the idol.

Jon starts talking about voting Julie out because the merge is coming soon and he doesn't want the singles to outnumber the couples. Makes sense.

Drew, however, thinks that Kelley is somehow the silent and deadly leader of the women and campaigns (sometimes five feet away) to vote her out. And, like the fishing gear earlier, he won't shut up about it, is bull-headed and won't listen to anyone else's opinions. He annoyed a lot of people.

The vote was all over the place:

Kelley and Keith got one vote each. Julie got two votes, and Drew got the remaining five, basically because he wouldn't shut up.

My predictions were close for Hunahpu. I think it would have been one of the women if Drew hadn't forced the issue. Bad play on his part.

So that leaves us with:

Team Coyopa (Orange - 6 players): Alec, Baylor, Dale, Jaclyn, Josh, and Wes.

Team Hunahpu (Blue - 8 players): Jeremy, Jon, Julie, Keith*, Kelley, Missy, Natalie, and Reed.

*has an idol

Voted out (in order): Nadiya, Val, Rocker, Drew

Survivor: Blood vs Water Week 4 Predictions

So I was just looking at the remaining players for Coyopa and Hunahpu and rated them from strongest to weakest within each tribe. Here's what I came up with:

Coyopa has been hit with tribal three times in a row to start the season (and I don't see that trend changing after what they did last episode). So strongest to weakest I have:

1) Alec - Saw the Rocker vote as a bad idea

2) Josh - Floater, playing all the sides

3) Wes - Seems like a good guy

4) Jaclyn - Not as bad as the last two but not very useful either

5) Dale - they have already discussed him being useless in immunity challenges

6) Baylor - Has received votes every week, just a matter of time now

In a "man vs woman" tribal decision, Josh would play the key role. He could vote with the guys (smartest move for him) or support the two remaining girls and deadlock things at three (and that would show the guys what a flipper he is making him a target for the next vote).

Now they could also go after Dale, realizing that they have Baylor in their back pockets for the next vote. There's some logic in that because at least Baylor is young and potentially helpful in the immunity challenge.

*Predictions - 

Dale is the next to go. I was going to say Baylor before I typed that last paragraph.

Depending on how many players they go with, I say Alec and Josh make it to the merge.

And now for Hunahpu. This is actually what got me thinking about all this because they haven't even had to go to tribal yet so you really don't know what internal politics are going on within the group. You only know that they had a hategasm for Rocker. Yeah I just made that word up.

This is how I rate their players:

1) Jeremy - Obviously the leader here

2) Jon - After his calisthenics display he has played strong and silent

3) Reed - The only reason he is ranked ahead of Keith is because of age

4) Keith - Age is against him but like Wes seems to be a good guy

5) Julie - Actually has been a strong player, but already upset over Rocker. What happens when she sees that he is gone?

6) Natalie - Big ass mouth and most annoying player in the game to me

7) Drew - Showing your tribe how lazy you are is not a good thing

8) Missy - In the same boat as Baylor I think

9) Kelly - In three weeks of notes while watching the episodes I haven't written one single thing about her

Tribal would put them in a man vs woman situation as well with the guys holding the advantage five to four. In that scenario I see Kelly, Missy and Natalie being discussed. They can't vote out a guy because that would even the odds so Drew is safe (for now).

*Predictions

The first time they go to tribal I think Natalie is gone. In the beginning of the game be useful, but keep a low profile. She has failed at that and made herself a target. She will be gone like her sister.

The next round will be between Missy/Kelly unless there is some strategy involved to blindside somebody. Look out Drew.

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And finally, I am going to go ahead and throw out my final three. 

Who could win: Alec, Josh, Wes, Jeremy, Jon, Reed, and Keith

Who doesn't stand a chance: Jaclyn, Dale, Baylor, Julie, Natalie, Drew, Missy, and Kelly.

My choices are Jeremy, Jon and Alec. Josh is a close fourth. Jeremy will win. There, my predictions are official.

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Survivor: Blood Vs Water Recap (10/08/14)

This week's recap is sponsored* by:

*And by "sponsored" I mean this is what I drank while watching the episode. I would love to have a sponsor of any kind...hello?...anyone?...sigh...

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So after last week's tribal council for Coyopa led to Val getting voted out, everyone was anxious to see what Jeremy's reaction would be once the groups got back together. Oh it was epic y'all.

But first, things were stirring individually at each of the camps.

Coyopa (Orange) 

They were discussing a "strong boy alliance" because of only two women left on the tribe. Baylor and Jaclyn are quite aware of the situation.

Hunahpu (Blue) 

The tribe started prepping their camp for potential monsoons and everybody shipped in, well except for Drew. Hippie boy gave up on his task in less than a minute and showed everyone he would rather sleep. Everyone agreed that he was totally worthless. I think this will play out later.

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Reward Challenge

So when the tribes come back together and Jeremy sees that Val is gone he goes off. He is yelling at the other tribe that the men are controlling everything and the women better unite or they are in trouble. John said he tried to save her but Jeremy wouldn't have any of it. I still blame Val for all this because of how she acted last week. That's on her and not Rocker.

The reward challenge faced Wes off against his dad, Keith. They had to balance on this board from one end to the other trying to stack six boards on top of each other "pancake style" with a long spatula. It was slow going, but very close with Wes winning for Coyopa. They were then given an option and chose fishing gear over comfort items like pillows and blankets.

Keith gets sent to Exile Island, and Wes chooses his tribe mate Josh to go with him.

Exile Island

This was the second trip to Exile Island for Keith so he knew what to expect. He said he would share the info he got because he got shut out of the clue by Val the first time. Josh got the blank piece of paper while Keith did get the clue. Josh didn't seem to care because it wasn't at his camp.

These two seemed to get along very well. They shared a meal of snails, but did not talk any strategy. The funniest moment came when Keith showed the sleeping arrangements on opposite sides of the fire and declared there would absolutely be "no spooning". Too funny.

Immunity Challenge

The battle for immunity was the race through an obstacle course while tethered to a teammate. They had to retrieve a ball and shoot it into a hoop in the middle of the course.

The results went like this:

Jon/Natalie beat Josh/Baylor (blue 1, orange 0)

Wes/Alec beat Missy/Julie (blue 1, orange 1)

John/Jaclyn beat Drew/Reed (blue 1, orange 2)

Jeremy/Kelly beat Josh/Baylor (blue 2, orange 2)

Jon/Natalie beat Wes/Alec (blue 3, orange 2)

Hunahpu wins immunity for the third straight time.

It was at this point that Natalie basically goes batshit crazy. She was constantly running her mouth and trying to antagonize Rocker into a fight. She just wouldn't shut up. She called him homophobic and a bigot. John said if she was a man he would punch her in the teeth (there was a quick moment where he even said she looked like a man. Epic).

There was a lot of yelling back and forth that just seemed to come out of nowhere. Jeremy had obviously stirred up a lot of animosity towards Rocker at camp.

Tribal Council

As a quick note, when Hunahpu got back to camp Julie ran off very upset about what had just happened to John. I didn't think it was justified either.

Now back at Coyopa the discussions started. Some agreed that Dale was "dead wood" and useless at challenges. The guys still talked about sticking to their original plan and vote out Baylor.

The biggest thing at camp was obviously the Rocker thing and whether they should blindside him. Alec actually pointed out that he was their best athlete and was a big asset to their tribe. He did not think it was a smart move to vote him out.

As the voting started I really had no idea how things were going to play out. The tribe didn't seem to either.

Baylor got 2 votes, Rocker got 5 and was sent home. After all the animosity that was stirring up against him, he should have played his idol immediately to ensure he would survive another day and maybe calm the tempers at camp. Instead he went home with a souvenir.

So that leaves us with:

Team Coyopa (Orange - 6 players): Alec, Baylor, Dale, Jaclyn, Josh, and Wes.

Team Hunahpu (Blue - 9 players): Drew, Jeremy, Jon Misch, Julie, Keith, Kelley, Missy, Natalie, and Reed.

Voted out (in order): Nadiya, Val, Rocker

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Observations: I think Coyopa allowed Hunahpu to actually influence their vote at tribal. The way I see it is that the blue team got the orange team to vote out the biggest threat to the blue team. So instead of getting rid of their weaker players and strengthening themselves, they did just the opposite.

Coyopa is definitely weaker now and whoever survives to the merge will be quickly voted out. They desperately need to win an immunity challenge and sure as hell aren't going to be able to do that with their best athlete gone.

Well played Hunahpu. Well played.